Uncertainty in Observational Estimates of Aerosol Radiative Effects: Current and Future Satellite Capabilities (Invited Presentation)

[11-Jan-2023] Abstract  Aerosols continue to be responsible for the largest uncertainty in determining the anthropogenic radiative forcing of the climate. To both reconcile the large range in satellite-based estimates of the aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE, the direct interaction with solar radiation by all aerosols) and to optimize the design of future observing systems, we build a framework for assessing uncertainty in aerosol DRE and the aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF, the radiative effect of just anthropogenic aerosols, RF_ari). These radiative kernels are used to compute a lower-bound on the systematic uncertainty in observational estimates of the aerosol DRE/DRF by making the optimistic assumption that global aerosol observations can be made with the accuracy found in the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometer retrievals. Also discussed is the expected capabilities of the Atmosphere Observing System (AOS) Constellation which is currently in the concept investigation phase as part of NASA's new Earth System Observatory (ESO).